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International freight traffic dynamics

It is a general trend for domestic brands to increase their global market share, and there is vast overseas space and potential to be tapped.


Construction industry: Spending on infrastructure such as factories, roads and streets has increased significantly, driving demand for US construction machinery.

After the epidemic, the growth rate of non-residential construction expenditure in the United States was significantly higher than that of residential construction expenditure, and production construction expenditure increased significantly. U.S. construction expenditures mainly include housing, apartments, offices, health care, education, religious buildings, public safety, recreation, transportation, communications, energy, roads and streets, sewers and garbage disposal, water supply, production, etc. According to data from the Census Bureau of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the downstream construction expenditures (annualized) from December 2020 to June 2023 have a larger proportion and faster growth, mainly production, commercial residential, highways and streets. The production category mainly includes production bases and related buildings and structures. The significant increase in construction expenditures is closely related to the series of economic stimulus policies introduced by the United States after the epidemic and the encouragement of the reshoring of manufacturing industries.

In contrast, U.S. residential construction spending slowed. After World War II, economic recovery drove the rapid development of real estate in the United States, with the number of newly constructed private residences exceeding 1 million units. Several economic crises in 1960 and 1969 brought about narrow fluctuations. After the 1970s, the coming of age of the baby boomers pushed U.S. real estate to another peak. However, the subsequent two oil crises in 1973 and 1979 brought violent shocks to the real estate market. After the 1990s, under policies such as easing credit and interest rates, increasing the homeownership rate, and more relaxed immigration laws, there was a long-term and great prosperity. Until the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the number of new construction starts dropped to a freezing point, but after the crisis, real estate recovered year by year. The outbreak of the epidemic in 2020 did not bring drastic fluctuations in the number of new private residential construction starts. This indicator was 1.379 million units, 1.601 million units, and 1.553 million units respectively in 2020-2022, but the growth rate has slowed down.

In addition, in terms of the number of housing units per capita, the number of housing units per capita in the United States was approximately 0.33 units per person in 1965, which continued to rise to 0.4 units per person in 1981, and has always been between 0.42-0.43 units per person from 1986 to 2022. There has been no significant increase, indicating that the number of houses per capita has reached a relatively sufficient level.

Demand for agricultural machinery: Rising labor costs drive further growth in demand for agricultural machinery

North America has a high level of agricultural modernization. The entire process of agricultural production has been mechanized, electrified, and chemicalized. It is one of the largest and most productive agricultural regions in the world. The main grains include corn, wheat, rice, oats, etc., and the cash crops include cotton. , soybeans, sugar beets, etc. According to Frost & Sullivan, agricultural machinery accounts for 70.7% of off-highway equipment sales. Therefore, tractors, as important agricultural machinery, are highly used in North America. Against the background of labor shortage, the rapid development of agricultural machinery technology has further improved the level of agricultural mechanization in North America. According to a report by the United States Department of Agriculture, the average annual hourly wage for field and livestock workers in the United States in 2022 will be approximately US$16.62, an increase of 7% from 15.56 yuan/hour in 2021. The continuing increase in labor costs has further boosted the demand for agricultural machinery. In Canada, according to data from the country's Agricultural Human Resources Council, Canada's agricultural labor shortage is expected to double by 2029 compared with 2021, resulting in a shortage of 123,000 agricultural labor workers. During 2020-2021, the cost of the country's labor shortage is approximately $2.9 billion, and the cost continues to rise.

In addition, the sustainable management of farms in recent years has also promoted the demand for highly mechanized agricultural machinery. Post-pandemic, in 2021, the USDA announced the 2021 Producer Pandemic Assistance Initiative, which includes 17 support projects for crop and livestock, timber producers, and some other commodity processors. However, considering that the agricultural machinery market in North America has experienced a series of consolidations and local giant brands have a relatively high market share, it is difficult for foreign brands to enter the local market. According to data from Frost & Sullivan, the U.S. Business Census Bureau, and Statistics Canada, in the North American agricultural machinery market, John Deere, Kubota, CNH, and AGCO accounted for 45%, 15.3%, 15.3%, and 8% respectively, and CR4 reached 83.6%.

Mine Development: Growing demand for lithium resources will drive demand for mining machinery in North America

North America is rich in mineral resources and has strong production capacity. In 2018, the reserves of trona, coal and molybdenum in the United States accounted for 92.8%, 23.7% and 15.9% of the world's total reserves respectively, and the reserves of diatomaceous earth and gypsum ranked first in the world. Mineral reserves such as natural gas, gold and copper also occupy an important position in the world, accounting for 6.0%, 5.6% and 5.8% of the world's total reserves respectively. In recent years, as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, the importance of lithium batteries and lithium ore resources has gradually received attention. Lithium resource supply sources mainly include brine and hard rock mines. Among them, spodumene is mainly concentrated in Australia, Canada, the United States, Zimbabwe and other countries; salt lake brine is mainly concentrated in Argentina, Chile, the United States and the Qinghai-Tibet region of China. According to data from the Huajing Industrial Research Institute, among the global proven lithium resource distribution in 2021, the United States and Canada accounted for 9% and 3% respectively, and the remaining resources are mainly concentrated in the South American Lithium Triangle (Bolivia, Chile, Argentina). It is expected that the growing demand for lithium resources in the future will drive North American mining projects and its demand for mining machinery.

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